This generation's console cycle is already looking to be longer than the
usual five-year cycle. While we are getting a successor to the PSP, it
looks like the PS4 is not going to be with us in the near future.
Sony, speaking at an analyst day this week noted that a PS4 isn't in the works for launch "anytime soon."
Colin Sebastian of Lazard Capital Markets noted that "Management remains
confident in the 10-year console lifecycle – no PS4 anytime soon. While
no time frames were mentioned explicitly regarding a console refresh
cycle, management indicated that there is little reason to expect a
deviation in the '10' year console cycle."
Sebastian also predicted that this new business model might leave the
door open for another competitor to enter the console market – possibly
from Apple.
"We think this might, over the duration of the remaining life of the
PS3, provide a window of opportunity for new gaming platforms such as an
Apple TV, which could simply utilize an SDK and App Store to deliver
games to television sets. The next generation Apple TV, will in our
view, likely feature the same hardware and software improvements that
accompanied the iPad 2, which include a dual core processor and a 9x
improvement in GPU performance."
Hardware makers like the prolonged console cycle due to declining
manufacturing costs and developers like working on a familiar SDK, what
do gamers think? Is it time we get a new console next year? Do you think
the current crop of consoles are showing their age? Are we near the
point of "maxing out" this generation of consoles or is that still a
while off?
