Quarter Hour Raw Rating Breakdown [2/27; Rock's Return]

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WWE's Raw TV rating Monday night was down three percent and social media activity was down 21 percent compared to last week's Raw the night after the Elimination Chamber PPV. ( Read the full ratings report )

Very similar to there being concern when Shawn Michaels returned to Raw two weeks ago and the overall rating did not increase, The Rock's return this week did not yield a return. This is unlike last year when Rock returned after a several-year absence and Raw hovered near a 4.00 rating over the next few weeks leading to WrestleMania 27 for the first time since 2009.

Rock's 20-minute promo and exchange with John Cena was contained in the over-run. The first portion scored a modest 3.53 rating and the final portion of the over-run, starting with Cena's interruption, scored a 3.30 rating. Cena's interruption came 15 minutes into the over-run, which was well-beyond the standard over-run period for Raw.

The over-run rating compares to a 3.22 rating for the opening segment featuring the promo exchange between Chris Jericho and C.M. Punk. Raw then hit its first hour peak with a 3.38 rating during the third quarter-hour, which contained the second-half of Punk vs. Daniel Bryan and the Triple H-Undertaker video package.

The second hour started with a weak 3.09 rating for the top-of-the-second-hour main event of John Cena vs. The Miz, which was given 15 minutes of hype, and the first-half of the three-team Tag Title match.

Raw then slowly built back to the show-opening range before peaking with the 3.53 over-run for the first portion of Rock's return promo.

By comparison, on the February 14, 2011 episode when Rock made his grand return, the episode scored the exact same 3.14 rating from this week. The over-run for Rock's 20-minute promo scored a 3.76 rating, which wasn't that much greater than this year's (6.2 percent decrease.

The key is that Raw then took off with a 3.85 rating the following week (coinciding with the 2-21-11 reveal that had been hyped and speculated on for weeks). This year, the only hook for next week's episode was the return of Shawn Michaels, with Rock not even mentioned for next week's episode despite him being advertised on WWE's website and in the Boston market.

[ QUARTER-HOUR RATINGS SOURCE: Wrestling Observer Newsletter ]

Caldwell's Analysis: How do you process so many items in-play concerning the ratings and how it could affect business? Looking at the over-run dropping when Cena came out to confront Rock, I attribute that mainly to the lateness of the hour at 11:15 p.m. EST. For many viewers, an over-run of five, even ten minutes is pushing the limit. By the time Rock wrapped up at 11:20 p.m. on a Monday night, there were bound to be some people who already tuned out, especially as Rock's initial promo seemed to drag at times.

There's also the law of diminishing returns factor with Rock. He's been part of WWE storylines for one full year now, even without being present for ten out of the 12 months. His return for Survivor Series hype was only three months ago and WWE didn't exactly create a built-in reason to see Rock's return promo on Monday, which followed his "big return after a seven years absence" this time last year.

There's also the issue of WWE diminishing the value of seeing Rock back in WWE. For months, John Cena has knocked Rock, but not in a "I want to beat you in a match" sports-like kind of way, but in a "doesn't it suck that Rock is coming back?" kind of a way, which, even if it's WWE propaganda, affects impressionable WWE viewers. There could be some resentment from viewers who have bought into the marketing from Cena and WWE that made Rock's return not a destination programming moment.

Throw in the Daytona 500 starting and stopping throughout Monday night and providing irregular competition for a Raw episode during February, and it was a recipe for a weaker-than-expected performance. The biggest key will be how Raw fares next week with Michaels, Triple H, Rock, and Cena on the same show. Undertaker won't be there, but he is expected to be on the next few shows.

With all of that star power and anticipation building for WrestleMania, if the rating doesn't turn around, live event attendance doesn't pick up, and the Social Media activity doesn't increase, then should WWE be concerned? Or, will WWE see it as everyone already knows the destination is WM28 and viewers are saving their time/money/interest/emotional investment for April 1?

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